Brexit has sparkled calls or another independence referendum, but also made it trickier for Scotland to go it alone.
AGAINST
the Brexit tide that swept Britain, 62% of Scots voted to stay in the European
Union on June 23rd, presenting the first minister of Scotland’s devolved
government, Nicola Sturgeon, with a difficult question: whether to push for a
second independence referendum.
Speaking
to journalists this morning, Ms Sturgeon said that it was “democratically
unacceptable” for Scotland to be yanked out of the EU against its will.
Britain’s departure represented the kind of “significant and material change in
circumstances” which her Scottish National Party said in its election manifesto
in May could trigger demands for a new independence referendum, following an
unsuccessful effort in 2014. The first minister indicated that she would first
speak to EU leaders, to see if Scotland could secure any sort of deal. But a
second referendum, she said, was now “highly likely”.
Yet
it is not immediately clear that Scots would reverse their 55% vote two years
ago to stay part of Britain, as Scotland would now face very different economic
conditions. One big change is the slump in the oil price, which has reduced tax
revenues and widened Scotland’s deficit to an unhealthy £14.9 billion ($22
billion) or 9.7% of GDP in 2014-15.
In
any EU accession negotiations following a pro-independence vote, agreement to
reduce that deficit, implying tax rises or public-spending cuts, would be
demanded by Brussels. How severe that austerity would be, compared with what
Britain’s government may now be contemplating following its departure from the EU,
is a question that Ms Sturgeon would need to answer.
Also
unknown is what currency Scotland would use. Although the EU may insist on
eventual adoption of the euro, Scotland would first have to establish a track
record of managing its own currency. That would seem to rule out any sharing of
sterling, as Alex Salmond, Scotland's former first minister, claimed would
happen (but Britain’s Treasury rejected) two years ago, and point to the need
to establish a Scottish currency, perhaps initially linked to sterling or the
euro.
Independence
would also create an external EU border between England and Scotland. Since
controlling the migration of EU nationals emerged as the deciding factor in the
Brexit vote south of the border, it looks unlikely that a British government
would leave open any back door to England.
That
raises the possibility of border controls between Gretna Green and
Berwick-upon-Tweed, across which £48.5 billion of Scottish goods and services
are estimated to have flowed in 2014, more than four times the £11.6 billion of
annual Scottish exports to the EU. Ms Sturgeon will want to be sure she would
win a second independence referendum before seeking one. Until she has answers
to these questions, she has no such certainty.
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