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Selasa, 28 Juni 2016

A little thought experiment - How to be fair to the pro-EU Scotland



ALEX SALMOND, the ex-leader of the Scottish National Party, has floated an interesting idea: could Scotland "inherit" Britain's EU membership, now that there has been a vote to leave? In the referendum Scotland turned out to be very pro-EU, whereas most of the rest of Britain leant towards Brexit. That has sparked calls for another Scottish independence referendum, which to many seem justified: why should Scotland be dragged out of Europe by England? It's probably fair to say that support for independence could now be the majority in Scotland. 


The BBC, which reported Mr Salmond's comments, explores the question he raises in a conventional manner. "If Scotland were to hold a second referendum, and become independent," they say, "it could apply to become a member of the EU in the usual way." In order for an independent Scotland to join, the other EU states would have to agree. 

However, as people who followed the 2014 Scottish independence referendum will remember, the process of Scotland going from independence to EU membership is extremely challenging. Countries like Spain, which are contending with their own separatist movements (eg, the Basque region and Catalonia), would try to block Scotland's accession. So Scotland could be left in the position of being independent but not in the EU, which is definitely not what it wants.

So, is there a way that there could be a) a vote for Scottish independence and b) a vote that ensured that Scotland could be part of EU in the event? How about the following:
(For the sake of convenience in this analysis, ignore Northern Ireland. Assume Scotland definitely wants to be independent of Britain.) David Cameron, who has just announced that he will be resigning later in the year, calls a referendum on Scottish independence just before he quits. To many people, this will seem unobjectionable.

However, there is a catch. Rather than Scottish people voting to become independent from Britain, the referendum is structured such that non-Scottish British people vote to become independent from Britain. In other words, if non-Scottish people vote in favour of "Scottish independence", then what really happens is that Wales and England become independent from the United Kingdom. At that point the "UK" would consist of just one country, Scotland. And so Scotland would remain in the EU. 

This approach has some merits. For one, in the event of a "yes" vote Scotland could become independent from the rest of the UK and simultaneously not drop out of the European Union. In addition, it would satisfy demands in England and Wales for independence from the European Union (because the independent country, England/Wales, would no longer be part of the EU, an analogous situation as would have emerged if Scotland had voted for independence in 2014).

There are a few obvious objections. Mr Cameron may not have the political authority to schedule another referendum. Breaking up this union is not popular in England and Wales: they may well vote to remain in the United Kingdom, thus denying Scottish independence (but in the process choosing to keep Wales and England in the EU). However, lots of people would agree to the idea of there being another Scottish referendum. And this type of Scottish referendum is fair to both Scotland and England/Wales, in that it allows both parties ultimately to get what they want.

So there. Perhaps.

source The Economist, Friday, June 24, 2016

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