"Brexit" and ASEAN Integration

While ASEAN strengthens its integration commitment through the establishment of ASEAN Community and ASEAN Vision 2025 under the political-security, economic and socio-cultural pillars, the European Union (EU) is conversely faced with the possibility of Britain's exit through a referendum on June 23.

It remains difficult to predict whether the British people will decide to exit (Brexit) or remain in the EU. However, whatever the outcome of the political process, it will have a significant effect on processes of regional integration, including in ASEAN.

This paper does not predict the results of the referendum, but highlights lessons that can be learned for the process of regional integration, especially in ASEAN. The EU and ASEAN are to date successful regional integration models with positive impacts in relation to security, stability and economic growth over the last several decades. The integration process of ASEAN learns a lot from the process in EU, even though it does not follow the EU pattern and has not led to the establishment of an ASEAN Union.

EU-ASEAN bottom line

To understand the emergence of the idea of a referendum, it is necessary to know that since the beginning, Britain has been a reluctant member of the EU. As a result of a referendum in 1975, the British people decided to join the EU, even though in its development Britain opted not to join the visa mechanism of Schengen and the eurozone.

The group of skeptics opine that within the EU, Britain loses its identity, political power and prominence as a global financial center. Meanwhile, the group of EU supporters has received moral support including from US President Barack Obama, the International Monetary Fund, OECD and the meeting of G-7 ministers of finance. When the British people decide, whatever the outcome, it will certainly have a very significant impact on ASEAN, particularly its integration process.

If the British people decide to remain in the EU, it will certainly support the arguments about the importance of sustainable strengthening of the ASEAN integration process. Such a decision would strengthen the commitment of ASEAN member countries to regional integration remaining an option to continue the achievement of ASEAN objectives. However, if the decision is in favor of leaving the EU, many analyses describe significantly negative impacts for Britain and EU. How about ASEAN?

Several analyses suggest that Brexit would have a significant impact for Britain both economically and politically, as well as in defense and security. Even though the impacts would not be significantly direct, would be negative for ASEAN. Therefore, several lessons have to be noted as to whether ASEAN will experience the same thing in the future. Unlike the EU, ASEAN does not lead to the establishment of a supranational organization with a mechanism like the EU, which is a target of criticism by the group of skeptics in Britain. The process of negotiation on free trade agreements (FTA) is conducted by the European Commission, whilein the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Zone and several FTAs with other countries, particularly ASEAN-China, negotiations are carried out by involving a consensus of the 10 ASEAN members countries, carried out collectively.

In contrast to the European Commission, the role of the ASEAN Secretariat is not to make regulations, but to support the implementation of agreements, including at the national level. In this regard, there is no compelling reason for the authority of member countries to be taken over by ASEAN. Nevertheless, challenges that need to be considered include public understanding. Both in ASEAN and the EU, public understanding is very minimal, both in terms of positive and negative impacts. The group of skeptics accuse the EU bureaucracy in Brussels of subsuming the sovereignty of the UK. Failure to anticipate and manage the flow of immigrants, terrorism cases and the economic crisis have exacerbated the EU's image in the eyes of the people of the member states.

The bottom line, among others in the integration process, should not take the people for granted. Because of that, since the formulation of the ASEAN Charter, the idea of making ASEAN as an organization oriented to the people and centered to the people must be realized concretely and felt by the whole people. The application of the ASEAN Community and declaration of ASEAN Vision 2015 are not much known or understood; the impression is of business as usual, not used as momentum, but raising concern and skepticism.

The failure in 2012 to produce an ASEAN consensus on the South China Sea remains a concern for every chairman of ASEAN. The experience has led several countries to try to avoid and postpone the discussion of the issue. The common position of ASEAN after the announcement of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on the South China Sea is a severe test for the current chairman, especially the unity and cohesiveness of ASEAN.

Several positive results available so far, like stability and security in the five decades since its establishment, democratization in Myanmar and strengthening of human rights protection, will become irrelevant if ASEAN cannot maintain unity. Recognition by the international community will diminish and people may also question the relevance of ASEAN.

Therefore, whatever the decision of the referendum, its impacts are clear, though not significant, particularly in the process of regional integration. The referendum decision should serve as a learning input for ASEAN, especially the understanding of the people and impacts felt from the ASEAN integration process. The idea of serving "people's interests" should be realized clearly and concretely.

Dynamics

The ability to manage the internal and external dynamics of ASEAN cannot be faced with a business as usual approach, such as by avoiding discussion of sensitive issues on the pretext that there is no unanimous consensus. In facing geopolitical dynamics, it very important for ASEAN to precisely realizes the identity by promoting various principles that have been agreed.

The idea of reviewing the ASEAN Charter after being implemented for eight years should not be responded with concerns of opening a Pandora's box. Many countries remain skeptical that this process will reopen old debates, and tend to choose to escape. Each member state needs to understand the motto chosen by the Indonesian foreign minister related to the role of Indonesia is ASEAN, namely "With Indonesia, ASEAN Becomes Strong: With ASEAN, Indonesia Moves Forward."

Finally, whatever the outcome of the referendum, ASEAN's role in maintaining stability and security in the region and increasing public welfare is a necessity that cannot be managed by a business as usual approach.

by Ngurah Swajaya

source Kompas, Friday, June 3, 2016