Shortcut to 7 Percent Growth

An economic policy should ideally focus on maintaining the continuity of development, not on pursuing short-term economic growth targets.

The Joko "Jokowi" Widodo government has started its term with an economic growth target of 7 percent by 2017, as stated in the National Mid-Term Development Plan (RPJMN). Construction of large-scale infrastructure is being used as the backbone to reach such a target.

One-and-a-half years after Jokowi's "Kabinet Kerja" (Working Cabinet) was formed, rising momentum for infrastructure development can increasingly be seen. However, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded that the economy grew only 4.9 percent in the first quarter of this year, along with the relatively weak purchasing power and growth of private investment. This figure was even lower than the assumed 5.3 percent as mentioned in the 2016 State Budget.

Reasonable growth

The mishitting economic performance has created a feeling of disappointment for various levels of the government. The policy makers now must think harder and find "breakthrough" ideas to boost the economy.

Such a reaction is quite reasonable. Every year, the number of Indonesian people entering the labor force is 2 to 3 million. Weak economic growth affects job creation in the formal sector (licensed businesses having permanent workers), which potentially can raise the unemployment rate.

Nevertheless, it is also better for us to understand the condition of the world economy, which is currently sluggish, and the risks if domestic policy is forced to pursue short-term targets. Hence, several factors should be kept in mind before forming an expectation of Indonesia's economic performance.

First, Indonesia is currently facing shrinking exports of its raw commodities. From January to April, commodity exports such as coal, oil palm and rubber shrank by 15 to 30 percent compared to the previous year. For the whole of this year, the amount of foreign exchange that could be lost from these commodities could reach US$7 billion, or equivalent to Rp 95 trillion. Such a revenue loss could spread like a virus to other supporting sectors, such as industries providing heavy equipment, transport and banking services.

Second, even though the state budget allocation for energy subsidies had already diverted to infrastructure from 2014, government spending has not yet shown significant increases. This is due to the falling revenues from natural resources and trade taxes. Even last year, government spending (not including the burden of debt interests) did not increase when compared to 2014. Only this year has there been an increase, specifically as of May with about Rp 67 trillion compared to the previous year. However, this too is financed by additional debt, so the government should be cautious in not surpassing the state budget's deficit limit.

Third, many sectors still have excessive production capacities. Do not forget that Indonesia received its peak of foreign investment flows in 2011 to 2013. In that period new factories were built, thereby raising the capacity of various industries, starting from food and beverage, iron, to automotive and machinery.

Subsequently, entering 2014, exports fell, the rupiah weakened and sales growth in various sectors started to decline. The turnover of public companies weakened after previously growing at 10 to 15 percent per annum, has now tumbled to at most 5 percent down to zero growth. As a result, when previously 30-percent capacity could be utilized in 2 to 3 years, it now takes twice as long.

It is better for us to ask again what kind of economic growth is ideal for Indonesia? With the Chinese economy weakening, the heyday era of raw commodity exports for Indonesia appears to have passed. Domestic economic growth can no longer rely on household consumption, but has to be based on exports of manufacturing and services. This is why infrastructure development is so important.

However, do not forget that infrastructure investment started from a relatively low level, which was about Rp 200 trillion in 2015. It is very small compared to household consumption which reaches approximately Rp 6.5 quadrillion or 55 percent of the total national economy. So, even if infrastructure investment increases by 50 percent, the immediate impact is still smaller than if consumption rises only by 5 percent. Therefore, if indeed we now focus on building infrastructure, economic growth in the range of 4.9 percent is actually still very reasonable.

Immediate policies directed at boosting short-term economic growth, such as intervention in a particular industry, have to be really thought out in regard to their impact. The reduction of interest rates and any monetary easing cannot necessarily be relied upon as a panacea. Credit growth will not increase if its need has not really recovered and particular industries are still experiencing contractions. When those who are encouraged to receive credit are the non-productive or speculative sectors, we must be vigilant to the danger of a bubble and bad debts at a later date.

Patience and consistence

Conceptually, major factors which could contribute to sustainable economic growth are knowledge and competitiveness. Therefore, the focus of the policies should be on structural problems such as infrastructure development and human resources, as well as the revamping of regulations that inhibit business competition. Many initiatives for the last one-and-a-half years are already on target, but patience is required as the benefits will only be felt three, five or even 10 years later.

In relation to declining short-term employment growth, here, additional social mitigations are needed aside from "breakthrough" ideas if they are available. If the employment growth of the formal sector is not adequate to accommodate the workforce, growth in the informal sector has to be facilitated and even be assisted to improve its productivity, for example, by encouraging the use of information technology (the informal sector here has a positive connotation, referring to the urban transport sector, retail trade, etc.).

Amid the uncertain condition of the world economy, there seems to be no shortcuts to prosperity. What exists is just a long way that must be passed in order for development to be sustainable and not intermittently be in crisis. We have been on the right track but we just have to be patient and consistent.

by Helmi Amran

source Kompas, Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Jalan Pintas ke Pertumbuhan 7 Persen

Kebijakan ekonomi idealnya fokus pada menjaga kesinambungan pembangunan, bukan mengejar target-target pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka pendek. Pemerintahan Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla memulai masa baktinya dengan target pertumbuhan ekonomi 7 persen pada 2017, sebagaimana tertuang dalam Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional. Pembangunan infrastruktur besar-besaran dijadikan tulang punggung yang menopang target tersebut.

Satu setengah tahun setelah Kabinet Kerja dibentuk, mulai terlihat peningkatan momentum pembangunan infrastruktur. Namun, Badan Pusat Statistik mencatat perekonomian hanya tumbuh 4,9 persen pada kuartal pertama 2016, seiring dengan masih lemahnya daya beli dan pertumbuhan investasi swasta. Ini bahkan lebih rendah daripada asumsi 5,3 persen yang tercantum dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2016.

Pertumbuhan yang wajar

Melesetnya kinerja ekonomi ini menimbulkan rasa kecewa di berbagai level pemerintahan. Para penentu kebijakan lantas dituntut berpikir lebih keras lagi dan memberikan ide-ide "gebrakan" untuk mendongkrak perekonomian.

Reaksi seperti ini cukup beralasan. Setiap tahun, jumlah orang Indonesia yang masuk angkatan kerja bisa mencapai 2-3 juta orang. Lemahnya pertumbuhan ekonomi mempengaruhi penciptaan lapangan kerja di sektor formal (usaha-usaha berizin yang memiliki pekerja tetap). Dan, akhirnya berpotensi menyundul tingkat pengangguran.

Meski demikian, ada baiknya juga kita memahami kondisi perekonomian dunia yang sedang lemah, serta risikonya bila kebijakan dalam negeri dipaksakan mengejar target-target jangka pendek. Ada beberapa hal yang perlu diingat untuk menjangkau ekspektasi kita terhadap kinerja ekonomi Indonesia.

Pertama, Indonesia masih menghadapi penyusutan ekspor komoditas mentah. Dari Januari-April 2016, ekspor komoditas, seperti batubara, minyak sawit, dan karet menyusut sebesar 15-30 persen dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya. Untuk keseluruhan tahun ini, jumlah devisa yang hilang dari komoditas tersebut bisa mencapai 7 miliar dollar AS, atau setara dengan Rp 95 triliun. Ini merupakan kehilangan pendapatan yang menjalar bagaikan virus kepada sektor-sektor penopangnya, seperti industri penyedia alat berat, jasa angkutan, dan perbankan.

Kedua, walaupun alokasi APBN untuk subsidi energi sudah dialihkan ke infrastruktur sejak 2014, belanja pemerintah belum menunjukkan kenaikan yang berarti. Ini akibat merosotnya penerimaan sumber daya alam serta pajak Perdagangan. Bahkan, tahun lalu, belanja pemerintah (di luar beban bunga utang) tidak mengalami kenaikan sama sekali dibandingkan 2014. Baru tahun ini mulai ada peningkatan, yakni per Mei sekitar Rp 67 triliun dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya. Itu pun dibiayai dari tambahan utang, sehingga perlu hati-hati agar tidak menembus batasan defisit APBN.

Ketiga, banyak sektor yang masih kelebihan kapasitas produksi. Jangan lupa bahwa Indonesia menerima puncak arus penanaman modal asing pada 2011-2013. Pada periode tersebut dibangun pabrik-pabrik baru yang menaikkan kapasitas berbagai industri, mulai dari makanan dan minuman, besi, hingga otomotif, dan mesin-mesin.

Kemudian, memasuki 2014, ekspor turun, rupiah melemah, dan pertumbuhan penjualan di berbagai sektor mulai merosot. Omzet perusahaan-perusahaan Tbk (terbuka) melemah dari sebelumnya tumbuh rata-rata 10-15 persen per tahun, sekarang menjadi 0-5 persen. Akibatnya, apabila dulu kapasitas 30 persen bisa terpakai penuh dalam 2-3 tahun, sekarang bisa butuh dua kali lebih lama.

Ada baiknya kita bertanya kembali, pertumbuhan ekonomi macam apa yang ideal bagi Indonesia? Dengan melemahnya perekonomian Tiongkok, era puncak kejayaan ekspor komoditas mentah bagi Indonesia sepertinya sudah lewat. Pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik tidak bisa lagi mengandalkan konsumsi rumah tangga, tetapi harus bertumpu pada ekspor manufaktur atau jasa. Inilah alasan pentingnya pembangunan infrastruktur.

Namun, jangan lupa bahwa investasi infrastruktur beranjak dari level yang relatif rendah, yakni sekitar Rp 200 triliun pada 2015. Ini sangat kecil dibandingkan konsumsi rumah tangga yang hampir mencapai Rp 6.500 triliun atau 55 persen dari besarnya perekonomian nasional. Jadi, bila investasi infrastruktur naik 50 persen pun, dampak langsungnya masih lebih kecil dibandingkan bila konsumsi naik hanya 5 persen. Jadi, bila memang saat ini kita sedang fokus membangun infrastruktur, pertumbuhan ekonomi di kisaran 4,9 persen sebenarnya masih sangat wajar.

Kebijakan-kebijakan instan yang diarahkan mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka pendek, seperti intervensi-intervensi pada industri tertentu, harus dipikirkan betul dampaknya. Penurunan suku bunga dan pelonggaran moneter pun belum tentu bisa diandalkan sebagai obat mujarab. Pertumbuhan kredit tidak akan melejit bila memang kebutuhannya masih belum pulih betul dan industri-industri tertentu masih mengalami kontraksi. Bila yang didorong menerima kredit adalah sektor-sektor nonproduktif atau spekulatif, kita harus waspada terhadap bahaya bubble dan kredit macet di kemudian hari.

Sabar dan konsisten

Secara konseptual, faktor-faktor utama yang bisa menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan adalah pengetahuan dan daya saing. Karena itu, fokus kebijakan harus tetap pada masalah-masalah struktural, seperti pembangunan infrastruktur dan sumber daya manusia, serta pembenahan regulasi yang menghambat persaingan usaha. Banyak inisiatif selama 1,5 tahun ini yang sudah tepat sasaran; tetapi memang harus sabar karena manfaatnya baru akan terasa tiga, lima, atau bahkan 10 tahun kemudian.

Terkait risiko turunnya pertumbuhan lapangan kerja dalam jangka pendek, di sinilah diperlukan tambahan bantalan sosial, selain juga ide-ide "gebrakan" bila memang ada. Kalau pertumbuhan lapangan kerja di sektor formal tidak cukup menampung tenaga kerja, pertumbuhan sektor informal harus difasilitasi dan bahkan dibantu dalam meningkatkan produktivitasnya, misalnya dengan menggalakkan penggunaan teknologi informasi. (Sektor informal di sini berkonotasi positif, merujuk pada sektor transportasi perkotaan dan Perdagangan eceran).

Di tengah kondisi perekonomian dunia yang tidak menentu, sepertinya tak ada jalan pintas menuju kemakmuran. Yang ada hanya jalan panjang yang harus dilalui agar pembangunan bisa berkelanjutan, tidak sebentar-sebentar krisis. Kita sudah berada di jalur yang benar, hanya harus sabar dan konsisten.

oleh Helmi Arman

disadur dari Kompas, Rabu, 29 Juni 2016